On Steam, gathering 'Wishlist' additions before launch is often treated as the holy grail. It is common wisdom that the more wishlists you rack up, the more visibility you get on the main store page, effectively positioning your title as the next big thing. But what if those 'wishlisters' don't actually open their wallets? A new report sheds light on the often-murky link between wishlist counts and actual day-one sales.

GameDiscoverCo, a newsletter dissecting the industry's inner workings, released a fresh report on Steam wishlists this 18th. The data reveals a cheeky truth: the genre with the highest conversion rate from 'wishlist' to 'purchase' is none other than suggestive adult games, colloquially known as 'eroge.' Furthermore, the data suggests that as prices climb and the store page stays live for longer periods before launch, the likelihood of those wishlisters actually buying the game tends to wither away.

The report examined games that hit at least 10,000 wishlists on Steam between 2024 and September 2025. To put this in perspective: a conversion rate of 0.1 means a game with 10,000 wishlists moved 1,000 units in its first week. The median conversion rate hovered at 0.17, meaning, on average, 10,000 wishlists translate to 1,700 sales in that crucial launch window.

Leading the pack are those 'eroge' titles. Despite recent turbulence—with payment processors putting the squeeze on Steam and several titles getting the boot from the storefront—these games boast incredibly loyal fanbases. Their relatively lower price point keeps those conversion rates high. That said, the market isn't exactly massive, so even excluding them doesn't drastically move the overall median.

It is also worth noting that as game prices rise, conversion rates tend to take a dip. When looking specifically at games priced above $10 (approx. 14,200 KRW), the median conversion rate drops to 0.10. This suggests that for every 100,000 wishlists, you are looking at roughly 10,000 sales in the first week. While the conversion rate itself hasn't cratered since 2022, the sheer intensity of competition on Steam has made securing those initial wishlists a much tougher climb.

Meanwhile, the top 20 games by first-week sales from September 2024 to mid-September 2025 all comfortably exceeded that median conversion rate. Even the lowest performer in that elite bracket outperformed the median by 3.2 times, with some outliers reaching a staggering 539 times the median. This highlights that when a massive title hits, the sheer weight of word-of-mouth and hype can drive sales from new users regardless of whether they had the game wishlisted beforehand.

Games that saw conversion rates significantly higher than the median (more than 6 times) were mostly viral hits that caught fire early on. Titles like 'Peak' (266x) and 'Mage Arena' (78x)—both heavily reliant on online co-op—saw massive traction on social media and streaming platforms. Naturally, long-standing annual franchises with established audiences (like EA FC or NBA 2K) also maintained high conversion rates.

Conversely, titles with abysmal conversion rates (0.07x or lower) typically ended up with a 67% (Mixed) average user rating on Steam seven days post-launch. This stands in stark contrast to the top 20 games, which boasted a 91% (Very Positive) rating. Another telltale sign? These low-performing titles kept their store pages open for far too long. While the top 20 games averaged 214 days from store page launch to release, the underperformers lingered for an average of 411 days. Keeping that 'Add to Wishlist' button active for too long might pad your numbers, but it seems to signal a slow bleed of interested players who eventually lose interest.